Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc37…30d0 sports 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$16 (+38%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate100%10W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$11
other 8% +$2
weather 7% +$2
politics 7% $0
tech 7% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +80.9% +63.7% 100% 100% +32.3%
≤30d 10 +51.4% +37.0% 100% 60% +25.6%
≤90d 10 +51.4% +37.0% 100% 60% +25.6%
all 10 +51.4% +37.0% 100% 60% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.0% 60% +25.6%
10% +23.9% 50% +13.6%
15% +11.9% 40% +2.6%
20% +0.9% 40% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +212%
Will San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matc Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +75%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.30 · official $3.30 (match) · 27 history records