Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc3e…cefd crypto 1283 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 179d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$809 (-1%) realized −$821 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate74%948W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$573
7 days−$419
14 days−$236
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$439
weather 38% −$943
world 0% −$13
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.7% -18.3% 69% 19% -19.4%
≤30d 188 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 27% -11.4%
≤90d 541 -6.3% -15.2% 76% 23% -13.6%
all 1277 -4.2% -13.3% 74% 32% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 32% -11.4%
10% -21.6% 20% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 15% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 12% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$821
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses948 / 329
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1277 / 1283
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 80¢ 90¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? No 95¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 90¢ 92¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? No 92¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? No 83¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $111 +$21 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $111 −$110 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $347 −$292 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $343 +$78 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $141 +$23 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $261 +$24 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $221 +$20 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $191 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $60 −$57 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$18 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$8 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $141 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $37 −$13 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $181 +$27 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $75 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $171 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $301 +$27 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $191 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $30 51m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 79¢ $18 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $40 38h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $20 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $20 38h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 95¢ $50 38h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.90 · official $261.90 (match) · 3500 history records