Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc40…4c26 other 537 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+0%) realized +$146 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%431W / 104L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$39
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$103
crypto 9% −$11
sports 5% +$143
weather 3% +$10
tech 2% +$8
politics 2% −$41
culture 1% +$1
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 39% -10.9%
≤30d 101 -7.7% -16.5% 51% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 237 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 16% -9.6%
all 535 -0.8% -10.3% 81% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses431 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)535 / 537
History coverage192d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 18 $50 −$5 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 −$37 -38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 −$44 -91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$19 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $48 +$38 +78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $48 +$44 +92%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $48 +$59 +122%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $98 −$41 -42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$98 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$62 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$4 -9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$19 -38%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $53 −$6 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$100 +197%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$85 +216%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$39 +76%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $36 −$19 -54%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$22 -33%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$34 +67%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 61¢ $45 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 41¢ $62 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $15 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $48 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $48 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $48 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $48 12h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $47 13h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $57 13h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $51 13h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $48 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $48 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $49 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $50 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $50 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $12 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 20¢ $44 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $49 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $39 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.62 · official $46.07 · 1286 history records