Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc40…34cc world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
other 23% −$1
politics 13% −$10
sports 13% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 14% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 30 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 76 +0.4% -9.1% 32% 3% -9.7%
all 79 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage527d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $57 −$4 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $34 −$4 -11%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $66 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $28 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $28 17h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $35 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.50 · official $27.75 (match) · 324 history records