Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc43…96d3
sports · 61 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$50,187 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36,330 · open −$13,857
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$355,420
Realized−$36,330
Unrealized−$13,857
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1,607
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 61
Avg bet$5,093
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46,674
7 days−$45,771
14 days−$45,771
30 days−$48,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 100¢ $41,000 $100,000 +$59,000 (+144%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 52¢ $75,171 $78,929 +$3,759 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 40¢ 40¢ $25,368 $25,398 +$30 (+0%)
Kings vs. Flames Flames 43¢ 100¢ $8,600 $20,000 +$11,400 (+133%)
Senators vs. Red Wings Senators 47¢ 100¢ $9,400 $20,000 +$10,600 (+113%)
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 Under 49¢ 100¢ $6,900 $14,000 +$7,100 (+103%)
Naples: Daniel Altmaier vs Hamad Medjedovic Hamad Medjedovic 62¢ 100¢ $6,945 $11,155 +$4,210 (+61%)
Kings vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Under 51¢ 100¢ $5,546 $10,884 +$5,338 (+96%)
Blackhawks vs. Devils Devils 61¢ 100¢ $6,100 $10,000 +$3,900 (+64%)
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $4,623 $9,837 +$5,214 (+113%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 52¢ 18¢ $27,311 $9,666 −$17,645 (-65%)
Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $2,500 $5,000 +$2,500 (+100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Canadiens 40¢ 100¢ $2,000 $5,000 +$3,000 (+150%)
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 Under 51¢ 100¢ $2,081 $4,043 +$1,962 (+94%)
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Under 48¢ 100¢ $1,695 $3,500 +$1,805 (+106%)
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $1,500 $3,000 +$1,500 (+100%)
Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 Under 52¢ 100¢ $1,560 $3,000 +$1,440 (+92%)
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-18? No 52¢ 100¢ $1,540 $2,942 +$1,402 (+91%)
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $1,462 $2,925 +$1,462 (+100%)
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Daria Snigur 69¢ 100¢ $1,393 $2,005 +$612 (+44%)
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $1,080 $2,000 +$920 (+85%)
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $993 $1,986 +$993 (+100%)
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5 Over 51¢ 100¢ $971 $1,886 +$915 (+94%)
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 229.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $897 $1,706 +$809 (+90%)
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $938 $1,230 +$291 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $7,409 −$7,409 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $5,099 −$5,099 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $9,756 −$9,756 -100%
Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $597 −$597 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5 Jun 12 $4,950 −$4,950 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $5,600 −$5,600 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Jun 12 $2,772 −$2,772 -100%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Will SSC Bari win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $3,508 −$3,508 -100%
Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $3,527 −$3,527 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $10,379 −$10,379 -100%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $1,818 −$1,818 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Predators Jun 12 $5,500 −$5,500 -100%
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Sabres vs. Ducks Jun 12 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5 Jun 12 $2,062 −$2,062 -100%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $10,100 −$10,100 -100%
Flyers vs. Sharks Jun 12 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Jun 12 $2,850 −$2,850 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $5,294 −$5,294 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41,726 +$59,000 +141%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 09 $1,406 +$612 +44%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $944 +$291 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino May 23 $62 −$61 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 22 $2,572 −$2,572 -100%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $479 +$676 +141%
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1,547 +$1,402 +91%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4,900 −$4,873 -100%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $2,778 −$2,507 -90%
76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5 Apr 09 $2,550 −$2,513 -98%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5 Apr 09 $4,698 +$5,214 +111%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5 Apr 09 $1,476 +$1,462 +99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 08 $190 +$810 +426%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $6,170 −$6,170 -100%
Raptors vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5 Mar 31 $3,888 −$3,856 -99%
Raptors vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Mar 31 $1,053 −$1,048 -100%
Knicks vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5 Mar 31 $1,101 −$1,094 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 Mar 31 $92 −$91 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5 Mar 31 $2,060 −$2,060 -100%
Knicks vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5 Mar 31 $980 −$980 -100%
Islanders vs. Sabres Mar 31 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Mar 31 $2,000 +$3,000 +150%
Stars vs. Bruins Mar 31 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Mar 30 $150 +$150 +100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Mar 30 $2 +$2 +100%
Kings vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Mar 29 $5,546 +$5,338 +96%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Mar 29 $6,100 +$3,900 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$60,371
other 37% −$4,885
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 3m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 4m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $16 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $67 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $16 6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $28 6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $1 7m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $2 8m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $17 9m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $18 9m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $6 9m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $7 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $1 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $1 12m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $26 12m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $129 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $26 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $1 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $11 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $29 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $1 15m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 15m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $1 15m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 15m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 17m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $7 17m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $3 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -80.0% -81.9% 12% 12% -37.3%
≤30d 28 -81.5% -83.2% 11% 11% -38.4%
≤90d 81 -19.8% -27.5% 38% 38% -21.0%
all 81 -19.8% -27.5% 38% 38% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 38% -21.0%
10% -34.4% 38% -28.5%
15% ← realistic here -40.8% 37% -35.4%
20% -46.6% 36% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355,420.01 · official $355,420.01 (match) · 3500 history records