Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc48…24c3 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,476 (+15%) realized +$10,576 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 57L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$695per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$820est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$511
7 days+$6,680
14 days+$9,296
30 days+$10,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$5,839
other 18% +$4,910
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -23.6% -30.9% 41% 34% +2.1%
≤30d 97 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 37% +6.0%
≤90d 97 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 37% +6.0%
all 97 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 37% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 37% +6.0%
10% -26.8% 34% -4.1%
15% ← realistic here -33.9% 30% -13.4%
20% -40.4% 25% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$526) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$639 vs −$258 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$3,460
Realized+$10,576
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$820
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage24d
Avg bet$695
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 89¢ 86¢ $3,560 $3,460 −$100 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,296 +$204 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,759 +$5,159 +137%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $864 −$851 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $2,778 −$2,747 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $2,255 −$2,238 -99%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $207 −$204 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 +$3 +41%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $570 +$505 +89%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $775 −$730 -94%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,560 +$440 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $607 −$601 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $3,552 +$832 +23%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $171 +$30 +18%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $151 +$187 +123%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $183 −$183 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $45 +$6 +14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $58 −$43 -74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,497 +$431 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $232 +$191 +82%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $85 +$55 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $341 −$156 -46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $634 +$650 +102%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $84 +$209 +249%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $99 +$103 +103%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $43 −$34 -77%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $252 +$108 +43%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $4 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $237 −$236 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $290 −$267 -92%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $218 −$218 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 19 $309 −$306 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $216 −$182 -84%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 19 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 19 $406 −$406 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 19 $495 −$495 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $6,377 −$1,724 -27%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $81 +$99 +122%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $12,199 +$9,636 +79%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $3,853 +$36 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 41¢ $93 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 41¢ $273 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $497 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $1,413 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $1,883 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 43¢ $197 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $65 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $11 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $18 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $22 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $105 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $72 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $72 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $72 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $36 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,460.00 · official $3,420.00 · 757 history records