Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc4a…8a13 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+21%) realized +$35 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$38
other 29% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 50% +23.8%
≤30d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 50% +23.8%
≤90d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 50% +23.8%
all 10 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 50% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% +23.8%
10% -16.5% 50% +12.0%
15% -24.5% 50% +1.1%
20% -31.9% 30% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) DR Congo 3¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$17 +114%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$22 +216%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 3¢ $3 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 4d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $5 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.57 · official $41.57 (match) · 19 history records