Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc4b…553b sports 20 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$499 (+2%) realized +$526 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,014per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,597
14 days−$41
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$75
other 23% +$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.0% -17.7% 36% 36% -23.4%
≤30d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 61% -5.3%
≤90d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 61% -5.3%
all 18 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 61% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 61% -5.3%
10% -13.0% 56% -14.4%
15% -21.4% 33% -22.6%
20% -29.2% 17% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$539 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$526
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,014
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $901 −$889 -99%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1,017 −$116 -11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $5,295 −$1,512 -29%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$242 +237%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,166 +$650 +56%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 13 $613 −$600 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,388 +$1,130 +81%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,009 −$57 -6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $353 −$350 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$154 +44%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,007 +$248 +25%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $1,008 +$361 +36%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,342 +$437 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $726 +$222 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $504 +$190 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $901 2d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $902 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 70¢ $1,198 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 84¢ $1,199 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 84¢ $1,212 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 71¢ $1,212 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 79¢ $1,375 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 69¢ $1,307 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 78¢ $1,510 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $344 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 78¢ $739 5d
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $202 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $102 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $153 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 76¢ $1,078 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $811 5d
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 5d
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $409 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $2,518 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $1,388 6d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $952 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 23¢ $153 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 14¢ $103 6d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 61¢ $1,012 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 69¢ $353 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $353 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 75¢ $1,007 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.02 · official $173.02 (match) · 44 history records