Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc4b…74d1 crypto 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,330 (-4%) realized −$1,330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%131W / 66L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$186
14 days−$186
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$1,749
other 23% +$917
sports 12% −$436
world 0% −$118
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.0% -39.4% 27% 27% -44.9%
≤30d 12 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 25% -38.3%
≤90d 31 -25.5% -32.6% 52% 29% -28.1%
all 197 +0.3% -9.3% 66% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 40% -13.0%
10% -18.0% 24% -21.3%
15% -25.9% 16% -28.9%
20% -33.2% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$110 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses131 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage227d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$71 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$47 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $44 −$37 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $252 −$97 -38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $125 +$30 +24%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 19 $80 +$20 +25%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $110 −$41 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $101 +$9 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $119 −$118 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $105 +$14 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $139 +$9 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 31 $127 +$11 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $113 +$14 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 26 $82 +$32 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $147 −$39 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $117 +$603 +514%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $112 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 19 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 19 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Mar 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 19 $169 −$146 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 19 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 19 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 19 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 19 $325 −$45 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Mar 19 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 19 $253 −$253 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Mar 19 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 19 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 19 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1528 history records