Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc4c…2961
sports · 6 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$118 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$90
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,010
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 91¢ 100¢ $920 $1,010 +$90 (+10%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$77 +76%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $203 −$196 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $610 +$118 +19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $852 +$72 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $205 −$44 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$209
sports 47% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 91¢ $922 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $178 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $203 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 69¢ $698 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 49¢ $508 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 3h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $852 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $152 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 40% +2.3%
≤30d 5 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 40% +2.3%
≤90d 5 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 40% +2.3%
all 5 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 40% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 40% +2.3%
10% -24.8% 20% -7.5%
15% -32.1% 20% -16.4%
20% -38.7% 20% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,010.48 · official $1,010.48 (match) · 14 history records