Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc4d…f0b8 sports 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,300 (-8%) realized −$3,198 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%121W / 159L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days+$223
14 days+$223
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,920
other 20% −$670
culture 3% −$325
politics 2% +$71
crypto 1% −$82
economics 0% +$123
world 0% −$108
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +41.9% +28.4% 59% 59% -1.2%
≤30d 24 +30.1% +17.7% 54% 54% -18.1%
≤90d 24 +30.1% +17.7% 54% 54% -18.1%
all 280 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 42% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -15.5%
10% -29.7% 41% -23.5%
15% -36.5% 38% -30.9%
20% -42.7% 34% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$114 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$3,198
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses121 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 287
History coverage229d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $171 $176 +$4 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $82 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$100 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$143 +140%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$147 +287%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $338 +$162 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $159 −$158 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 +$57 +134%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $260 −$35 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $163 −$162 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$77 +344%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $63 +$37 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $209 +$91 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $58 +$119 +205%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $283 +$317 +112%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $280 −$171 -61%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor Feb 28 $328 −$24 -7%
Will Miho Takagi (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Sp Feb 23 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Sk Feb 19 $98 +$104 +106%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 19 $163 +$337 +207%
Will Francesca Lollobrigida (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Feb 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Japan win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will William Dandjinou (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 20 Feb 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Jongun Rim (KOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spe Feb 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Long Sun (CHN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Feb 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Damien Zurek (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Feb 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Yevgeniy Koshkin (KAZ) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jenning De Boo (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Metodej Jilek (CZE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 14 $122 +$286 +235%
Will Davide Ghiotto (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 14 $275 +$225 +82%
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Feb 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Spee Feb 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Vladimir Semirunniy (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics Feb 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Sander Eitrem (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Timothy Loubineaud (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2 Feb 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Courtney Sarault (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $84 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $101 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $173 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $107 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $71 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $51 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 41¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $338 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 47¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $28 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $159 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $76 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $52 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Tü BUY 24¢ $24 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $43 4d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 23¢ $225 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $163 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $23 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $48 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $42 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 6d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $102 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.35 · official $257.35 (match) · 995 history records