Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

BC 0xbc4f…6d05 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$58 (+8%) realized +$77 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate71%15W / 6L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day17.8pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+12.2%	+1.6%	71%	67%	+4.9%
≤30d	21	+12.2%	+1.6%	71%	67%	+4.9%
≤90d	21	+12.2%	+1.6%	71%	67%	+4.9%
all	21	+12.2%	+1.6%	71%	67%	+4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.6%	67%	+4.9%
10%	-8.2%	52%	-5.2%
15%	-17.0%	43%	-14.3%
20%	-25.2%	24%	-22.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +9% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$77

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses15 / 6

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage3d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day17.8

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	76¢	81¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+7%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Under	53¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$40	+$20	+50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$50	+$21	+41%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$50	+$9	+18%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$50	+$5	+11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$41	+$33	+81%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$50	−$28	-55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$11	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	+$23	+46%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh	Jun 20	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$25	+50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	−$19	-92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$50	+$6	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$11	+$8	+73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$50	+$11	+23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland	Jun 19	$37	−$3	-7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	−$9	-86%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia	Jun 19	$20	+$1	+4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$11	+$15	+135%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$15	+$9	+57%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland	Jun 18	$15	+$4	+26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$8	-77%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$61	2m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$71	3m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	70¢	$50	19m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	53¢	$20	31m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$59	34m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	84¢	$50	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$55	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	90¢	$50	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$73	4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	40¢	$23	4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$41	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$40	10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$50	11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	76¢	$30	12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh	BUY Pakistan	7¢	$5	13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh	BUY Pakistan	71¢	$25	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	94¢	$76	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$56	27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland	BUY Ireland	58¢	$20	33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland	SELL Ireland	56¢	$1	33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland	SELL Ireland	60¢	$20	33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland	SELL Ireland	61¢	$7	33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	81¢	$50	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.46 · official $21.47 (match) · 52 history records