Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbc54…a39a world 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%46W / 75L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$6
other 23% +$3
economics 9% +$2
politics 7% −$3
sports 2% +$16
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% +$5
finance 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.8% +5.7% 18% 9% -8.1%
≤30d 38 +4.8% -5.1% 24% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 50 +4.2% -5.7% 30% 4% -9.4%
all 121 +3.7% -6.1% 38% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 6% -9.2%
10% -15.1% 3% -17.9%
15% -23.3% 3% -25.8%
20% -30.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 75
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage467d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $101 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $193 +$10 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +190%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $87 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $36 −$2 -5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $178 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $85 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $178 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $190 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $34 +$3 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $177 −$6 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $174 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $83 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $89 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 26 $88 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $23 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $7 +$3 +38%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $32 −$4 -12%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $87 +$5 +6%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $602 +$3 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $151 +$4 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $1,255 +$2 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 18 $656 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $30 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $2 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $86 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $101 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $101 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $91 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $83 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $83 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $91 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $92 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $54 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $48 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $87 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $64 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records