Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc54…cb1a politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$18
other 39% −$16
sports 10% −$12
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 140 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage132d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $483 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 30 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $259 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $227 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $427 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $267 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 6h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 8h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 15h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 36h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 36h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $221 22d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $221 24d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 25d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 26d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $239 26d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $239 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $252 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $252 27d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $267 27d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $267 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 31d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $227 31d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $227 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records