Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbc56…8304 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$9
politics 19% $0
other 16% $0
sports 13% +$13
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 75 +3.7% -6.1% 31% 5% -9.2%
all 89 +4.4% -5.5% 36% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 6% -8.8%
10% -14.6% 3% -17.5%
15% -22.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -30.4% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage488d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $86 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $126 +$6 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $26 +$4 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $68 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $35 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $11 −$3 -26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $72 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $66 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $2 $0 +18%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $196 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $36 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $19 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $22 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $17 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $23 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $44 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.24 · official $28.98 (match) · 346 history records