Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc56…8f28 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$614 (+1%) realized +$1,272 · open −$658
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%68W / 29L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$293est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$192
14 days−$192
30 days+$1,175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$973
other 33% +$1,399
politics 0% +$34
world 0% +$50
crypto 0% +$17
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -3.0% -12.3% 64% 45% -9.9%
≤30d 97 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 55% -7.3%
≤90d 97 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 55% -7.3%
all 97 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 55% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 55% -7.3%
10% -12.2% 37% -16.2%
15% -20.7% 26% -24.3%
20% -28.5% 16% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$272 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,892
Realized+$1,272
Unrealized−$658
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses68 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$293
Open positions8
Markets (closed)97 / 105
History coverage20d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,019 +$19 (+2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? No 94¢ 100¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Sharks 63¢ 100¢ $250 $397 +$147 (+59%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $250 $373 +$123 (+49%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $200 $290 +$90 (+45%)
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Santiago De La Fuente 50¢ 50¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 57¢ 2¢ $1,000 $34 −$966 (-97%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $202 +$131 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $303 +$138 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $592 +$8 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $365 +$135 +37%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $385 +$115 +30%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $198 +$52 +27%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $1,514 +$560 +37%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $199 +$51 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $132 −$130 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $603 +$160 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $300 +$398 +132%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $597 −$218 -36%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $737 +$167 +23%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $507 −$500 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $254 +$278 +109%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $237 +$78 +33%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,202 +$143 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $500 +$62 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 23 $226 +$31 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$52 +13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,200 +$55 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $2,300 +$249 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $802 +$151 +19%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $503 +$107 +21%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 +$19 +18%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $999 +$31 +3%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $502 +$93 +19%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $302 −$302 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $601 −$601 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,500 +$119 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,501 +$141 +9%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $500 +$31 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,100 +$75 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 +$150 +75%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $240 +$22 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,002 +$61 +6%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $200 +$14 +7%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2,002 +$79 +4%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $501 +$50 +10%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $503 +$114 +23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $304 −$155 -51%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $50 +$450 +900%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $501 +$31 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,731 +$45 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $416 +$95 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,000 46m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 53m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $114 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $152 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $188 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $252 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 63¢ $253 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 68¢ $303 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 24¢ $102 2h
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago De La Fuente 50¢ $127 3h
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago De La Fuente 50¢ $127 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 76¢ $113 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 82¢ $35 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 82¢ $7 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 82¢ $8 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 82¢ $32 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 85¢ $8 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 85¢ $68 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 84¢ $8 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 84¢ $210 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Jessika Ponchet 52¢ $132 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 57¢ $289 3h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 74¢ $186 3h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 71¢ $179 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 38¢ $97 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,891.60 · official $3,136.05 · 388 history records