Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc56…71ca other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$39
sports 26% −$22
politics 9% −$10
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage133d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $301 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $542 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $327 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $335 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $708 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $326 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $347 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $694 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $423 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $604 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $592 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 4h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 5h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 14h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $64 15h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 29h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 30h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 32h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 33h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 36h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 38h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 38h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 39h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $65 41h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $65 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 47h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1350 history records