Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbc57…41a6 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,272 (-29%) realized −$1,273 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$540per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 60% -39.3%
≤30d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 60% -39.3%
≤90d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 60% -39.3%
all 5 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 60% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 60% -39.3%
10% -34.0% 40% -45.1%
15% -40.4% 40% -50.4%
20% -46.2% 0% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$1,060 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$1,273
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$540
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $262 +$30 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,908 −$1,908 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $507 +$228 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,142 +$538 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $151 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $63 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $194 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $212 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,139 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $769 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $507 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,142 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.94 · official $282.95 (match) · 15 history records