Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc58…21d5 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$8
sports 28% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -76.3%
≤30d 5 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -76.3%
≤90d 5 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -76.3%
all 5 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.3% 0% -76.3%
10% -70.4% 0% -78.6%
15% -73.3% 0% -80.6%
20% -75.9% 0% -82.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Melissa Mullins 18¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 19¢ $1 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records