Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc59…35f7 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized −$136 · open +$146
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 58% -21.8%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 58% -21.8%
≤90d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 58% -21.8%
all 19 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 58% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 58% -21.8%
10% -18.3% 58% -29.3%
15% -26.2% 58% -36.1%
20% -33.5% 47% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$103 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner Los Angeles Thieves 61¢ 100¢ $250 $410 +$160 (+64%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 58¢ 52¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 50¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $126 +$63 +50%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $76 +$40 +52%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $76 +$71 +93%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $76 −$75 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $329 −$325 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $76 +$65 +86%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $76 +$58 +76%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $152 −$150 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $51 +$42 +83%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 +$18 +46%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $71 +$42 +60%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $71 +$56 +79%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $152 1h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 61¢ $253 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $76 14h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $76 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $329 14h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 47¢ $51 22h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $152 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $102 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $76 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $76 36h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 37h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $76 37h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 58¢ $101 41h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 45h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $76 46h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $126 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $40 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $71 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $71 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.87 · official $722.00 (match) · 35 history records