Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc5b…3f6a sports 251 markets active 12h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,130 (-2%) realized −$13,130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%145W / 105L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,706per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$7,125est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days−$12,710
14 days−$8,815
30 days−$7,520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$17,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +15.9% +4.8% 68% 61% -18.9%
≤30d 189 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 48% -10.3%
≤90d 250 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 46% -11.2%
all 250 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 46% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -19.7%
15% -29.6% 31% -27.5%
20% -36.5% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$2,235) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,098 vs −$1,682 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses145 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$7,125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2,706
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $349 +$79 +23%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $282 +$48 +17%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $993 −$993 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $315 +$1,085 +344%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $758 +$797 +105%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $2,031 +$845 +42%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1,462 +$123 +8%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3,133 +$3,042 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $236 +$47 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $179 +$24 +13%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $548 +$40 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $667 +$333 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7,332 +$1,000 +14%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $426 +$447 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $319 −$313 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $750 +$672 +90%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) Jun 14 $8,364 −$1,920 -23%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $327 −$320 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,601 +$867 +33%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $266 +$42 +16%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $996 −$982 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $19,973 +$4,224 +21%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5) Jun 12 $204 +$46 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $1,941 +$2,041 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $1,205 +$829 +69%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $7 +$18 +250%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $293 +$215 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $407 +$94 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $63,932 −$23,076 -36%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $325 −$325 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $233 −$228 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $405 +$69 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $1,516 −$1,509 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2,235 +$5,139 +230%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $2,540 +$554 +22%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $35,503 +$34 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $603 +$87 +14%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,196 −$1,176 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $9,362 +$3,281 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $474 +$306 +65%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 09 $996 +$132 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $2,701 −$2,661 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $241 −$237 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 208.5 Jun 09 $327 −$320 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 85¢ $282 12h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 81¢ $349 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $881 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $52 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $8 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 22¢ $315 34h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $27 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $731 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 70¢ $2,031 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 92¢ $1,462 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $73 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $24 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $26 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $40 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $853 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $37 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $37 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $64 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $41 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $853 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $244 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1139 history records