Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc5e…7e59 other 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 28% −$27
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$5
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage135d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $352 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $331 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $250 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $676 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $166 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $220 −$1 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $482 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $871 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $238 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $269 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $551 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 5h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 12h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 21h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 22h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 32h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 36h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 38h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 41h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 43h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 45h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $55 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.71 · official $53.71 (match) · 1439 history records