Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc5f…018f weather 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-20%) realized −$37 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$51
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +20.0% +8.6% 29% 29% -26.4%
≤30d 14 +20.0% +8.6% 29% 29% -26.4%
≤90d 14 +20.0% +8.6% 29% 29% -26.4%
all 14 +20.0% +8.6% 29% 29% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 29% -26.4%
10% -1.8% 21% -33.4%
15% -11.3% 21% -39.9%
20% -20.0% 14% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$16 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$42 +602%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 −$43 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$67 +372%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $46 −$44 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 1¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 1¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 68 history records