Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc61…792f crypto 1212 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,459 (-6%) realized −$1,459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%627W / 585L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days−$17
30 days−$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,854
world 2% −$239
other 1% +$10
sports 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +5.1% -4.9% 53% 52% -8.2%
≤30d 161 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 42% -21.1%
≤90d 1097 -6.8% -15.7% 52% 48% -18.0%
all 1212 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 47% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 47% -17.3%
10% -24.1% 45% -25.2%
15% -31.5% 41% -32.4%
20% -38.2% 36% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses627 / 585
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1212 / 1212
History coverage104d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1212 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$52 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$86 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$16 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $523 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $310 +$106 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $310 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $730 +$153 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$16 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $532 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $419 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $279 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $846 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $217 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2921 history records