Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc62…8e02
other · 144 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$62 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$258
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions80
Markets (closed)63 / 144
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 80 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$23
14 days+$24
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 45¢ 97¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+115%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 21¢ 56¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+164%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 57¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 76¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 70¢ 77¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 42¢ 61¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 78¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 18¢ 21¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 73¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 67¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 80¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Canada leading at halftime? No 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 11 $1 +$10 +990%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 −$1 -42%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$19 +1506%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $7 $0 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $19 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $8 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 05 $11 +$2 +16%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -42%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 05 $7 −$2 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1 $0 -47%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $7 +$14 +198%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +52%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 -2%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -3%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$3
world 21% +$15
politics 15% +$32
tech 14% −$5
finance 3% −$4
sports 3% −$2
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $1 41m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $4 54m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $2 2h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 4h
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 4h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 19¢ $1 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 7¢ $0 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 8¢ $3 7h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 12¢ $4 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +77.9% +61.0% 50% 27% +3.8%
≤30d 63 +25.9% +13.9% 44% 24% -2.2%
≤90d 63 +25.9% +13.9% 44% 24% -2.2%
all 63 +25.9% +13.9% 44% 24% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 24% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 16% -11.6%
15% -7.0% 13% -20.1%
20% -16.1% 11% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.69 · official $256.88 (match) · 399 history records