Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc64…fc2b sports 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$840 (+2%) realized +$841 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%204W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days+$219
14 days−$486
30 days+$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$111
other 19% +$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +23.3% +11.6% 76% 76% +6.2%
≤30d 67 +7.0% -3.2% 60% 60% +0.2%
≤90d 228 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 56% -12.2%
all 363 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 56% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 56% -8.0%
10% -16.6% 55% -16.8%
15% -24.7% 50% -24.8%
20% -32.1% 35% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$90 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$841
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses204 / 159
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage694d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 64¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$25 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $102 +$46 +45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $73 +$49 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$48 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 +$19 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $125 +$54 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 +$20 +95%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $35 +$23 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 +$22 +30%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $48 +$79 +165%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$52 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$105 +105%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Rocket League: Twisted Minds vs Karmine Corp (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Rocket League: Karmine Corp vs Gentle Mates (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris P Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Rocket League: Manchester City Esports vs Shopify Rebellion (BO7) - RL Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Twisted Minds (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs REBORN (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs SK Nebula (BO5) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Rocket League: NRG Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris P Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $84 +$30 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $38 +$41 +109%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $71 +$34 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -7%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $25 +$37 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $69 +$27 +40%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $40 +$66 +165%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $101 +$38 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $57 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $53 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $30 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $72 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $73 42h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $27 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $200 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $35 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $179 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $125 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 34¢ $44 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $42 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $21 6d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $92 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $71 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $48 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $91 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $206 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $101 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $124 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 99¢ $114 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 72¢ $84 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $56 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.73 · official $54.73 (match) · 807 history records