Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc65…96c8
sports · 715 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$31,418 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32,441 · open +$1,023
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,213
Realized−$32,441
Unrealized+$1,023
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses268 / 445
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions2
Markets (closed)713 / 715
History coverage366d
Avg bet$598
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 713 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$347
14 days+$4,011
30 days+$3,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Paper Rex 42¢ 100¢ $500 $1,198 +$698 (+140%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 53¢ 78¢ $690 $1,015 +$325 (+47%)
Kings vs. Celtics Kings 18¢ 0¢ $1,007 $0 −$1,007 (-100%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 20¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 27¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner OG 43¢ 0¢ $1,002 $0 −$1,002 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Nets Nets 8¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) EDward Gaming 34¢ 0¢ $998 $0 −$998 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Phoenix Mercury 26¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. 76ers 76ers 50¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Team WE 21¢ 0¢ $519 $0 −$519 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Oh My God 48¢ 0¢ $436 $0 −$436 (-100%)
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Heat 42¢ 0¢ $1,028 $0 −$1,028 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1,324 $0 −$1,324 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Oh My God 43¢ 0¢ $499 $0 −$499 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Hornets Pelicans 30¢ 0¢ $998 $0 −$998 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Trail Blazers 20¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Zhejiang Lions 27¢ 0¢ $970 $0 −$970 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Clippers Pacers 17¢ 0¢ $249 $0 −$249 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Hornets Hornets 38¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner GamerLegion 33¢ 0¢ $1,215 $0 −$1,215 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Anyones Legend 30¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Nongshim Red Force 37¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Team WE 50¢ 0¢ $317 $0 −$317 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 26¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,167 −$1,150 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $712 +$948 +133%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $509 +$717 +141%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $514 −$505 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $508 +$627 +123%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $608 −$600 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $823 −$810 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $500 +$827 +165%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 09 $501 −$490 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $508 −$500 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $562 −$550 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $752 +$823 +109%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $500 +$250 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $512 −$500 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $511 +$1,572 +307%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $562 −$550 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $511 −$500 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $488 −$480 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $450 −$440 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $490 +$965 +197%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $437 +$540 +124%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $991 −$970 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $224 +$209 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,215 +$2,007 +165%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $725 +$489 +67%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $511 −$500 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $508 +$491 +97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $508 −$500 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $304 −$300 -99%
Game Handicap: TT (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $255 −$250 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $254 −$250 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $413 +$2,273 +550%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Boca Juniors vs. Quimsa Jun 01 $158 +$250 +158%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 01 $232 +$225 +97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $426 +$504 +118%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $186 +$239 +129%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $126 −$123 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $181 −$178 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $257 +$406 +158%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $125 +$247 +197%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 18 $165 −$162 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $216 −$211 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $141 −$138 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $44 −$44 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 10 $18 +$26 +145%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $127 −$109 -86%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $145 −$142 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $144 −$141 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $126 +$162 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$28,448
other 3% −$2,361
world 0% −$609
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $700 1h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 42¢ $509 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $1,167 9h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 42¢ $712 17h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Spirit 41¢ $509 24h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $514 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $1,135 28h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $608 29h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $508 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $823 42h
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $500 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 26¢ $501 2d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 45¢ $508 3d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 29¢ $562 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $752 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $500 4d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 20¢ $512 4d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $562 5d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $511 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 29¢ $511 5d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 44¢ $488 5d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 27¢ $450 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $490 6d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 27¢ $991 7d
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) BUY Anyones Legend 44¢ $437 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $224 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1,210 8d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $2 9d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $724 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 43 +20.5% +9.0% 47% 47% +8.5%
≤90d 128 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 38% -10.4%
all 713 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 37% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 37% -16.4%
10% -18.6% 36% -24.4%
15% -26.5% 36% -31.7%
20% -33.7% 35% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,213.03 · official $2,213.03 (match) · 1310 history records