Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc66…eb09 other 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%15W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$43
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$51
other 26% −$26
sports 17% −$12
crypto 6% −$13
economics 5% −$4
world 5% −$5
culture 4% −$5
tech 3% −$6
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 80 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 166 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 181 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses15 / 166
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage103d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 21 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $66 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $28 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 $0 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $294 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $48 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $62 −$24 -39%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $76 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $138 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $169 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $35 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $36 9h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $29 10h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $29 14h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $35 14h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $36 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $37 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $37 30h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 30h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $26 36h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $27 41h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 96¢ $34 42h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $34 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $26 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $30 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $34 3d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $34 3d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 91¢ $27 3d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $28 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.94 · official $32.94 (match) · 726 history records