Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbc67…9627 other 31 markets active 3h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$318 (+19%) realized +$321 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$20
14 days+$303
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$215
sports 12% +$49
crypto 4% +$43
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -24.9% -32.1% 47% 47% -7.7%
≤30d 29 +4.8% -5.2% 45% 45% +8.0%
≤90d 29 +4.8% -5.2% 45% 45% +8.0%
all 29 +4.8% -5.2% 45% 45% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 45% +8.0%
10% -14.3% 45% -2.3%
15% -22.5% 45% -11.7%
20% -30.1% 31% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$38 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage9d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$105 +103%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$23 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$122 +249%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 +$153 +596%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$2 -5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$157 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $72 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 36h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 36h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $206 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $140 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $74 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.74 · official $96.74 (match) · 45 history records