Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc68…f899 sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27,083 (-15%) realized −$27,155 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%54W / 74L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,410per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2,618est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$4,270
14 days−$4,270
30 days−$17,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$28,249
other 9% −$2,867
crypto 2% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 31 -45.9% -51.1% 29% 29% -34.8%
≤90d 128 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 40% -26.0%
all 128 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 40% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 40% -26.0%
10% -20.2% 37% -33.1%
15% -27.9% 30% -39.5%
20% -35.0% 20% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$1,990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$688 vs −$925 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$852
Realized−$27,155
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses54 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$2,618
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,410
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 65¢ 71¢ $780 $852 +$72 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $80 −$75 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,217 −$2,100 -95%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,013 −$955 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,200 −$1,140 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $2,376 −$2,250 -95%
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska Jun 04 $2,183 −$2,077 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $2,635 −$2,500 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,689 −$1,600 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $638 −$600 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $1,670 −$1,587 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $2,955 −$2,800 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $741 +$1,151 +155%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6,061 +$4,788 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $1,137 +$746 +66%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Landaluce May 30 $768 −$727 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2,545 +$2,360 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $2,111 −$1,722 -82%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $1,703 +$1,655 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $3,909 −$2,956 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $793 −$750 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $2,108 −$2,000 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $6,880 +$2,762 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $1,592 −$1,092 -69%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $1,573 −$1,500 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $792 −$750 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $2,733 +$322 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $2,731 +$1,113 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $682 +$247 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $2,115 −$1,457 -69%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $4,040 −$1,895 -47%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 20 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $1,900 −$1,797 -95%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner May 20 $1,787 −$1,700 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $368 −$350 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $529 +$629 +119%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $2,486 +$708 +28%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $1,011 +$480 +48%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 18 $3,131 +$1,449 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $2,014 +$1,116 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 16 $528 −$500 -95%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $1,723 +$1,025 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,004 +$721 +72%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2,223 −$2,200 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $1,528 −$264 -17%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK - Map 1 Winner May 14 $422 −$415 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 14 $868 −$747 -86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 14 $1,417 −$1,417 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 14 $299 +$119 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $819 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $829 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $1,247 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $2,217 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $1,013 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,200 5d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 47¢ $2,376 15d
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska BUY Shnaider 63¢ $2,183 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 54¢ $2,635 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 47¢ $1,689 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 26¢ $319 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 24¢ $319 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 60¢ $1,578 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 58¢ $92 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 58¢ $1,368 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 32¢ $530 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 43¢ $1,057 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Rafael Jodar 37¢ $741 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $6,061 20d
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Landaluce BUY Landaluce 42¢ $768 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova BUY Diana Shnaider 57¢ $1,137 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul SELL Tommy Paul 10¢ $389 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 50¢ $434 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 49¢ $2,111 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 48¢ $2,111 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong SELL Karen Khachanov 12¢ $953 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 32¢ $742 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 47¢ $1,056 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 49¢ $2,111 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $852.46 · official $852.01 (match) · 354 history records