Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc6c…4af6 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$24
sports 29% +$11
economics 10% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +147.1% +123.6% 50% 17% -8.0%
≤30d 14 +55.9% +41.0% 21% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 55 +11.1% +0.5% 27% 4% -9.6%
all 55 +11.1% +0.5% 27% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -9.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -17.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -25.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage90d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $179 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $430 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $654 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $288 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $452 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $441 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $470 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $99 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 26 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $1,471 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $684 −$1 -0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $714 −$1 -0%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 11 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $714 −$2 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $26 +$2 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $357 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $699 −$1 -0%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 22h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $82 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $95 22d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $97 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.68 · official $87.68 (match) · 245 history records