Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbc70…ad4e crypto 4 markets active 6d ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+5%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% +$4
crypto 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -44.8% -50.1% 50% 0% -0.7%
≤90d 4 -20.4% -28.0% 75% 0% -5.6%
all 4 -20.4% -28.0% 75% 0% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 0% -5.6%
10% -34.9% 0% -14.6%
15% -41.2% 0% -22.9%
20% -46.9% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×31.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×93.69 per $1 lost it wins $93.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage48d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $99 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 7d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A SELL Yes 100¢ $11 47d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL Yes 99¢ $103 47d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 95¢ $99 48d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A BUY Yes 96¢ $11 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records