Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc70…574c other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$496 (-4%) realized −$486 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate66%40W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days−$226
14 days−$226
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,065
politics 38% +$928
tech 2% −$258
crypto 2% −$108
world 0% +$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 55% -21.1%
≤30d 13 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 54% -29.8%
≤90d 13 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 54% -29.8%
all 61 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 36% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 36% -13.8%
10% -24.5% 25% -22.0%
15% -31.8% 23% -29.6%
20% -38.4% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$180 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$1,161
Realized−$486
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses40 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage200d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $190 $268 +$78 (+41%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $106 −$23 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $106 +$94 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $158 +$96 +61%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 +$70 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $368 −$368 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$70 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $262 +$90 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$94 +90%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $190 −$139 -73%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? May 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $200 −$136 -68%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 14 $210 −$125 -60%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Mar 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 11 $300 +$45 +15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $200 +$112 +56%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 21 $519 +$872 +168%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 11 $505 −$346 -69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $34 +$17 +49%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 02 $52 −$29 -56%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $165 +$35 +21%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $495 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 24 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 24 $570 +$118 +21%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $144 +$150 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $1,000 −$881 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 13 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $83 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $106 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $105 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $158 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $158 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $158 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $263 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $263 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $105 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $105 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $106 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $262 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 97d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $64 97d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 97d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 97d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $85 97d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 17¢ $85 97d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 97d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,161.04 · official $1,161.08 (match) · 180 history records