Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc74…f984
world · 77 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$32
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses36 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $2,104 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $139 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $436 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $327 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $309 +$5 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $124 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $136 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $133 +$3 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $134 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $107 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $291 −$23 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2,825 +$5 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 17 $12 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 09 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 86% −$4
other 8% −$5
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$7
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $137 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $137 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $66 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $71 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $137 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $72 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $121 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $150 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $151 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $136 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $133 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $134 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $44 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 75 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 8% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.55 · official $31.24 (match) · 296 history records