trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -32.4% | -38.9% | 45% | 45% | +4.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -32.4% | -38.9% | 45% | 45% | +4.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -38.1% | -44.0% | 42% | 42% | +2.4% |
| all | 20 | -33.0% | -39.3% | 35% | 35% | -2.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.3% | 35% | -2.6% |
| 10% | -45.2% | 25% | -11.9% |
| 15% | -50.4% | 25% | -20.4% |
| 20% | -55.3% | 20% | -28.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 74¢ | 74¢ | $1,500 | $1,518 | +$18 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $1,006 | −$957 | -95% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $510 | −$500 | -98% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $3,705 | +$1,952 | +53% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $719 | −$592 | -82% |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $2,271 | +$1,341 | +59% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $77 | −$75 | -97% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $5,529 | −$3,077 | -56% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $3,901 | +$1,955 | +50% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $3,327 | +$574 | +17% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $2,000 | +$827 | +41% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $569 | −$567 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 29 | $349 | −$349 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $349 | +$1,105 | +317% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 10 | $317 | −$317 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | Feb 10 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Nov 05 | $50 | −$49 | -98% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $250 | −$186 | -74% |
| Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | Jul 19 | $925 | −$462 | -50% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | Jul 17 | $1,300 | −$837 | -64% |