Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbc75…3f69
politics · 9 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
+$49,573 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,770 · open +$27,592
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$534,794
Realized+$25,770
Unrealized+$27,592
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage190d
Avg bet$58,511
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$9,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $338,063 $362,103 +$24,040 (+7%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 87¢ $168,052 $171,510 +$3,458 (+2%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1,087 $1,181 +$94 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $86,702 +$9,463 +11%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $22,822 +$492 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $1,806 −$24 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $967 +$6 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 05 $105,714 +$15,632 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 04 $6,447 +$201 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 98% +$53,179
crypto 1% +$201
world 0% −$24
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $25 9h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $92 9h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $6 13h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 29h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 29h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 29h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 29h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $1 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $1 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $1 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $1 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 23¢ $0 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +10.9% +0.4% 100% 100% +0.4%
≤90d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 33% -1.5%
all 6 +5.0% -5.0% 83% 33% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 33% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -8.8%
15% -22.4% 0% -17.6%
20% -30.0% 0% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534,794.15 · official $534,794.15 (match) · 3500 history records