Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc79…b11f other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$3
tech 37% −$1
crypto 11% −$14
politics 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.5% -19.0% 36% 9% -10.6%
≤30d 13 -8.9% -17.6% 38% 8% -10.5%
≤90d 15 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 7% -10.5%
all 42 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 10% -10.0%
10% -19.6% 7% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage232d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $235 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 $0 -6%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $273 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $220 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +2%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $5 $0 -7%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Jan 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 09 $50 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Nov 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 22 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Nov 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 1h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 1h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $226 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $226 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $246 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $2 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $218 27h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $19 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $218 29h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $216 29h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $235 29h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.93 · official $245.93 (match) · 158 history records