Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc7c…d068 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+9%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$22
sports 6% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.1% -14.1% 73% 36% -11.9%
≤30d 11 -5.1% -14.1% 73% 36% -11.9%
≤90d 11 -5.1% -14.1% 73% 36% -11.9%
all 11 -5.1% -14.1% 73% 36% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 36% -11.9%
10% -22.4% 36% -20.3%
15% -29.9% 27% -28.0%
20% -36.7% 18% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $96 −$61 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $93 +$2 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $74 +$19 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $128 +$6 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$3 +4%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 50m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $96 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $93 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $64 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $70 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $68 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $66 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 46h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records