Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc7e…d691 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate58%29W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 18% −$3
crypto 5% +$4
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 2% −$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 0% -9.8%
all 50 -3.8% -13.0% 58% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $8 −$1 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $64 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Mia Farrow win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 31 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 29 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $9 $0 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16? May 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 10 $2 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $4 +$4 +90%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 06 $8 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $10 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $13 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $22 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $8 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $27 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $35 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.16 · official $34.16 (match) · 191 history records