Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbc7e…489f other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,596 (+111%) realized +$6,600 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$6,661
other 47% −$140
crypto 2% −$5
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +20.4% +8.9% 32% 27% +127.9%
≤30d 41 +20.4% +8.9% 32% 27% +127.9%
≤90d 41 +20.4% +8.9% 32% 27% +127.9%
all 41 +20.4% +8.9% 32% 27% +127.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 27% +127.9%
10% -1.5% 27% +106.0%
15% -11.0% 24% +86.1%
20% -19.7% 24% +67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +143% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$593 vs −$43 · ×13.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.34 per $1 lost it wins $6.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$6,600
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$59 +58%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $256 −$194 -76%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $211 +$1,001 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$4 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $615 −$330 -54%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 +$120 +30%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$47 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $123 −$100 -81%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$106 -52%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$19 +9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$146 +179%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$27 -54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$174 +340%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 +$154 +189%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$41 -67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $93 −$17 -19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$5 -2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $157 −$29 -19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$247 +121%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $90 −$45 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$8 -29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$16 -8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $936 +$5,572 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $149 −$72 -48%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$79 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 0m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 0m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $160 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $147 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $523 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $165 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $403 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $97 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.89 · official $295.89 (match) · 117 history records