Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BC 0xbc7e…06a2 sports 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$734 (+5%) realized +$944 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%64W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$1,555
14 days+$1,773
30 days+$1,979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$1,479
other 25% −$1,385
crypto 8% +$12
politics 3% +$503
world 0% −$50
finance 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +52.3% +37.8% 57% 57% +45.3%
≤30d 52 +28.8% +16.6% 52% 52% +24.2%
≤90d 76 +10.1% -0.3% 46% 46% +15.0%
all 169 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 38% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 38% -3.9%
10% -20.8% 38% -13.1%
15% -28.4% 38% -21.5%
20% -35.5% 38% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$67 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized+$944
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 105
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions16
Markets (closed)169 / 185
History coverage459d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 39¢ 42¢ $150 $163 +$13 (+9%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 78¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $103 $113 +$10 (+10%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $52 $45 −$7 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $46 $39 −$7 (-15%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $52 $19 −$33 (-63%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-37%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $57 $12 −$45 (-79%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+37%)
Will New York Mets win the 2026 NL East title? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $150 $4 −$146 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$85 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $143 −$141 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 +$98 +96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 +$123 +121%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $112 −$110 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $107 +$93 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $152 +$98 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 +$136 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$98 +95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$80 +388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $100 +$971 +971%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$113 +226%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $101 +$87 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $248 +$256 +103%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $138 +$162 +117%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $190 −$187 -98%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $207 −$206 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $147 +$196 +133%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $110 +$90 +82%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $46 −$44 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $250 +$250 +100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $199 +$185 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $51 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $51 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $35 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $26 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $2 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $9 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $24 6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $95 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $37 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $13 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $26 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $26 26h
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $51 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $51 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $112 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $122 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $107 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.43 · official $878.43 (match) · 502 history records