Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc7f…f922 crypto 944 markets active 6h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$669 (-4%) realized −$640 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%458W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$31
crypto 33% −$377
world 8% −$436
other 6% +$91
politics 4% +$7
economics 2% −$12
tech 1% −$45
finance 0% −$21
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -17.5% -25.4% 28% 24% -2.0%
≤30d 36 -18.1% -25.9% 31% 28% -2.4%
≤90d 585 -38.5% -44.4% 29% 25% -25.2%
all 933 -10.1% -18.7% 49% 45% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 45% -13.9%
10% -26.4% 39% -22.2%
15% -33.5% 31% -29.7%
20% -40.1% 22% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$640
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses458 / 475
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions11
Markets (closed)933 / 944
History coverage117d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 29¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 6¢ 2¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-63%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 24¢ 6¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-76%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$10 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$18 +290%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $24 +$39 +159%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 14 $625 +$155 +25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $67 −$6 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $39 −$28 -72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $60 −$30 -50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $38 −$6 -17%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $11 +$8 +74%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 23 $2 −$1 -51%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $5 −$2 -30%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 22 $3 +$3 +97%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Q May 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) May 22 $5 +$8 +165%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $7 +$8 +115%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $6 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $29 +$37 +125%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $18 −$11 -61%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $22 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $14 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) May 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 24¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 26¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $15 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 73¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 30¢ $5 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $9 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.13 · official $72.13 (match) · 2816 history records