Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc80…41fe other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+29%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.5% +12.6% 20% 20% -21.2%
≤30d 5 +24.5% +12.6% 20% 20% -21.2%
≤90d 5 +24.5% +12.6% 20% 20% -21.2%
all 5 +24.5% +12.6% 20% 20% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 20% -21.2%
10% +1.8% 20% -28.8%
15% -8.0% 20% -35.6%
20% -17.0% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$8 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$5 -43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$25 +292%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.06 · official $2.94 (match) · 12 history records