Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BC 0xbc8c…273f crypto 591 markets active 3h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,666 (+6%) realized +$18,936 · open −$3,270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%248W / 337L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1,531est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,110
7 days+$15,434
14 days+$15,228
30 days+$21,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$20,100
crypto 12% −$3,858
other 8% −$1,031
world 1% −$2,663
economics 0% −$563
culture 0% −$286
politics 0% −$99
finance 0% +$8
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +13.9% +3.1% 68% 65% +2.7%
≤30d 92 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 48% -1.1%
≤90d 140 -21.3% -28.8% 53% 44% -2.1%
all 585 -23.7% -30.9% 42% 37% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 37% -4.5%
10% -37.6% 29% -13.6%
15% -43.6% 23% -22.0%
20% -49.1% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$127 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$18,936
Unrealized−$3,270
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses248 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,531
Open positions6
Markets (closed)585 / 591
History coverage212d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $129 $81 −$48 (-37%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $85 $35 −$49 (-58%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Daria Zelinskaya 63¢ 0¢ $3,000 $2 −$2,998 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 280 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,998 +$1,126 +11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $22,669 −$5,577 -25%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $4,349 +$117 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $15,094 +$3,869 +26%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $14,066 +$2,521 +18%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $8,097 +$5,282 +65%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $6,047 +$2,061 +34%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $5,034 +$1,459 +29%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $1,329 +$937 +70%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $3,716 +$939 +25%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3,333 +$468 +14%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3,009 +$324 +11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2,461 +$635 +26%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,900 +$582 +31%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $1,249 +$651 +52%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $947 −$85 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,221 −$833 -68%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1,801 +$368 +20%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $280 +$1,540 +549%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2,272 −$1,990 -88%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $1,492 +$777 +52%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,066 +$428 +40%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $899 +$168 +19%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $516 +$425 +82%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $359 +$157 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $773 −$773 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 06 $22 −$21 -96%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $478 −$67 -14%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $477 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $1,955 −$1,952 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $395 −$385 -97%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $479 −$466 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1,543 −$1,170 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $1,395 +$154 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $840 +$553 +66%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $729 +$114 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $225 +$170 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $206 +$133 +65%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $1,643 −$1,466 -89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $479 −$479 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 60¢ $1,012 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 65¢ $2,021 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9,998 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $15,169 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $657 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 83¢ $10,643 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 17¢ $1,923 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 83¢ $1,330 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $4,466 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 97¢ $4,349 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $10,039 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $206 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $684 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $18,074 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 79¢ $15,094 7h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $16,587 7h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 84¢ $14,066 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $13,379 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 61¢ $3,035 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 59¢ $5,061 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 12h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 74¢ $6,047 13h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 77¢ $5,034 15h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 58¢ $1,329 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.83 · official $243.83 (match) · 1282 history records