Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbc93…0b0e sports 85 markets active 12d ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,030 (-1%) realized −$4,030 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate69%59W / 26L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,217per market
Trades / day65.5pace
Fees−$2,661est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6,176
30 days−$10,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$3,461
world 20% −$6,001
other 4% +$292
politics 1% +$6
crypto 1% −$815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 37 -30.0% -36.7% 49% 24% -14.4%
≤90d 85 -13.9% -22.1% 69% 16% -9.6%
all 85 -13.9% -22.1% 69% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 16% -9.6%
10% -29.6% 11% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -36.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -42.6% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$6,121) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$788 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,030
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses59 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$2,661
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$5,217
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $6,411 −$6,176 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $70,697 −$6,055 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19,924 +$54 +0%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $720 −$718 -100%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 07 $12,174 +$274 +2%
Will England win? Jun 07 $5,183 +$19 +0%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $7,577 +$765 +10%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $3,701 −$1,099 -30%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $3,186 +$274 +9%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $38,257 +$2,534 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10,190 +$10 +0%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $486 +$79 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 30 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 30 $113 −$112 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $129 −$128 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $2,239 −$105 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $193 +$135 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 30 $80 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 30 $81 +$82 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 30 $180 +$120 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 30 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 30 $200 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 30 $80 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 30 $182 +$54 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 30 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $80 −$57 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 30 $27 +$28 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 30 $7,217 +$358 +5%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $14,648 +$475 +3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins t May 29 $47 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $25,150 +$854 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $7,717 +$1,572 +20%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $22,649 −$679 -3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $6,501 +$138 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $19,219 −$524 -3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $12,723 +$1,329 +10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Who win May 21 $1,535 +$20 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $950 +$10 +1%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants - Comp May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $4,500 +$43 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $9,425 +$123 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 4¢ $20 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 4¢ $0 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 92¢ $184 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 84¢ $4 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 84¢ $6 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 84¢ $4 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 84¢ $8 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 84¢ $5 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $241 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $139 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $40 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $23 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $119 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $80 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 81¢ $300 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 81¢ $4 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 82¢ $360 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 82¢ $5 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 82¢ $46 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 83¢ $166 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 83¢ $249 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $16 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $47 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $218 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $5 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $168 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $5 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $52 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 85¢ $312 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 85¢ $42 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records