Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BC 0xbc93…7b87 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$69 (-6%) realized −$40 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +367% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +323% what you keep after slip
Net edge+323%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$160
sports 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+322.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -43.0% -48.4% 0% 0% -48.4%
≤30d 4 +367.3% +322.8% 25% 25% -41.7%
≤90d 4 +367.3% +322.8% 25% 25% -41.7%
all 4 +367.3% +322.8% 25% 25% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +322.8% 25% -41.7%
10% +282.4% 25% -47.3%
15% +245.4% 25% -52.4%
20% +211.6% 25% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +367% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$53 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$671
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage27d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $671 −$29 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $285 −$122 -43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$9 -24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$34 +1636%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $163 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 52¢ $28 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $285 26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $721 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.83 · official $670.83 (match) · 34 history records