Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc9b…1b9c crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13,404 (-1%) realized −$12,895 · open −$509
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate81%114W / 26L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$9,962per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$61,953
politics 4% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +104.3% +84.8% 72% 19% -9.1%
≤30d 124 +33.9% +21.1% 83% 13% -9.5%
≤90d 140 +57.8% +42.8% 81% 13% -10.2%
all 140 +57.8% +42.8% 81% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.8% 13% -10.2%
10% +29.1% 9% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here +16.6% 9% -26.6%
20% +5.2% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$11,412) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$889 vs −$1,765 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,207
Realized−$12,895
Unrealized−$509
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses114 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 129
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$9,962
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Up 34¢ 28¢ $2,716 $2,207 −$509 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $5,657 −$5,657 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9AM ET Jun 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? Jun 27 $36 +$177 +486%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 25? Jun 27 $243 −$258 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $44 −$108 -244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$163 +24881%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? Jun 27 $1 +$115 +21883%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11AM ET Jun 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $11,471 +$942 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $115 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $6,537 +$2,319 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $17,294 +$76 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5,020 +$50 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $993 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $3,217 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $2,024 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $197 +$74 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $2,381 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $56,260 +$1,185 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $2,795 +$1,948 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $333 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $3,967 +$640 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $388 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $366 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 25 $6,271 +$17 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $11,671 +$62 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $11,447 +$601 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $3,046 +$15 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $3,348 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $20,967 +$109 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $6,336 +$74 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $82 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $2,013 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $14,761 +$383 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2,075 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $206 +$44 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $12,868 +$105 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5,972 +$78 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $16,445 +$124 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $31,778 −$7,051 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $505 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $634 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $10,106 +$10 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $10,855 +$11 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2,986 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $95 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 23¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7,747 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 27¢ $792 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 27¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2,662 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $582 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $130 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $380 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 38¢ $1,892 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 38¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $71 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $85 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $84 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,207.43 · official $2,207.43 (match) · 3500 history records