Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbc9c…7ae7 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$28
sports 25% −$13
politics 25% −$16
crypto 10% −$8
world 5% −$3
economics 4% −$1
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 68 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 121 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 147 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 136
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage108d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 18 $58 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $150 −$2 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $183 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $166 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $81 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 07 $52 $0 -1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 $0 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $311 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $396 −$3 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $266 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $43 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 9h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL No 97¢ $58 10h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 16h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 21h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 22h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 30h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $66 31h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 96¢ $46 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $7 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $40 44h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $45 45h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $64 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $65 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $13 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.90 · official $52.90 (match) · 539 history records