Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbca3…9914 crypto 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,947 (-16%) realized −$3,869 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%38W / 87L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,087
7 days−$1,087
14 days−$1,087
30 days−$1,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,414
other 6% −$871
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -40.7% -46.3% 16% 16% -48.5%
≤30d 19 -40.7% -46.3% 16% 16% -48.5%
≤90d 21 -43.6% -48.9% 14% 14% -48.5%
all 125 -25.1% -32.3% 30% 27% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 27% -24.8%
10% -38.7% 22% -32.0%
15% -44.7% 19% -38.5%
20% -50.1% 14% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$100 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,869
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses38 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage96d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Iraq? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $272 −$260 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $337 −$197 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$202 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$62 +150%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $62 −$25 -40%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $51 −$42 -81%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $41 −$39 -95%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $72 −$44 -61%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $62 −$40 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $230 −$91 -40%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $350 −$257 -73%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $309 −$33 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$41 +74%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $82 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 09 $25 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 21 $52 +$27 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 21 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 21 $40 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 21 $28 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 21 $85 −$71 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 20 $140 −$41 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 19 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 19 $133 −$133 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 20? Mar 19 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $40 −$21 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 19 $150 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2PM ET Mar 19 $100 −$90 -90%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 2PM ET Mar 19 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 19 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 19 $24 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 19 $350 −$323 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 19 $400 +$157 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 19 $200 −$53 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 19 $100 +$107 +107%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 19 $300 −$283 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 19 $100 −$72 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 19 $200 −$167 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $240 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $307 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $42 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 5¢ $37 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $72 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $92 31h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 1¢ $93 31h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $237 32h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $276 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $1.83 (match) · 539 history records