Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbca5…e94b crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$584 (+8%) realized +$590 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%38W / 26L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$1,046
14 days+$1,986
30 days+$1,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,434
sports 29% +$524
crypto 14% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +47.7% +33.6% 61% 61% +24.7%
≤30d 38 +50.7% +36.4% 63% 63% +39.7%
≤90d 39 +46.9% +32.9% 62% 62% +39.3%
all 64 +18.6% +7.3% 59% 58% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 58% +32.8%
10% -3.0% 48% +20.1%
15% -12.3% 45% +8.5%
20% -20.9% 34% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$28 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$590
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses38 / 26
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)64 / 96
History coverage114d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 34¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-16%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$24 +148%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$34 +67%
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$52 +85%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$44 +145%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$42 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 +$96 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$36 +132%
England leading at halftime? Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $108 +$100 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $93 +$111 +119%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$47 +46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $112 +$53 +48%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $451 +$260 +58%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $119 +$116 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$119 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $173 +$79 +46%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $148 +$76 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $89 +$159 +178%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $429 +$469 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $462 +$471 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 18 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 17 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 17 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $49 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $123 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 17¢ $367 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 33h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 34h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 47¢ $252 34h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY 53¢ $104 34h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY 53¢ $203 36h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 36¢ $57 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 15¢ $21 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY 45¢ $60 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $51 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will South Africa win on BUY 50¢ $30 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on BUY 66¢ $71 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 40¢ $31 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 62¢ $71 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 37¢ $20 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 53¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.82 · official $257.82 (match) · 188 history records